![]() ![]() We assume these losses will grow to an average 1.5 mb/d for the month as Russian refiners extend run cuts, more buyers shun barrels and Russian storage fills up. So far in April, roughly 700 kb/d of production has reportedly been shut in. ![]() Russian oil supply and exports continue to fall. From this month, our OPEC+ supply estimates will be published on our website. Non-OPEC+ output is now seen growing by 2 mb/d in 2022, 100 kb/d lower than in last month’s Report. Output from non-OPEC+ producers, most notably the US, also fell short of expectations at the start of the year. In March, output from the alliance’s 19 members with quotas was up by a mere 40 kb/d, far below the planned 400 kb/d increase, and 1.5 mb/d below their target. Insisting that no supply shortage exists, OPEC+ countries agreed on 31 March to stick with a modest monthly output increment for May. Crude prices have eased by nearly $10/bbl following announcements of the US and IEA stock releases, with ICE Brent last trading at around $104/bbl. The record volumes will provide welcome relief to an already tight oil market that’s facing heightened uncertainty amid the multitude of repercussions stemming from sanctions and embargoes targeted at Russia by the international community and consumer boycotts. IEA member countries agreed on 1 April to tap their emergency reserves for the second time in the space of a month, this time to the tune of 120 mb. Oil markets struggling to navigate supply losses and dislocations stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine received much needed support from US and IEA coordinated stock releases. Benchmark crude prices are now back to near pre-invasion levels but remain troublingly high and are a serious threat for the global economic outlook.
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